This type of pattern means a stronger vortex and a northerly displaced jet. Luckily a strong piece of the polar vortex is expected to park over eastern canada through early november. This may be caused, in part, by the neutral enso/+QBO regime which favours a cooler late oct into early nov period for the east. We have seen a wave 1 response across the bering sea area which has also helped bring the chill, along with an active east asian jet.
What this also means is a recovery of the vortex is likely to occur by mid november, with a potentially positive AO regime setting up through early winter. The SAI/OPI has been the opposite of last year with a sharp negative trend in snow cover since early october. Ridging is expected to continue south of 60N across siberia so I would expect this trend to continue with snow cover ending off at near normal levels.
If we look at the 10 most positive AO winters we find the following SLP setup near the north pole. Notice the -MSLP anomalies near siberia.
This year we have seen below normal MSLP across northern siberia as well.
The likely scenario IMO is the AO index remaining on the positive side through much of november and december with a SE ridge in the means and the core of cold/ winter storms aimed towards the midwest. This does not mean we cannot see a wintry pattern along the east coast, especially for new england, and the northern tier. Dec 07 is a good example of this. The +AO game is risky though as we will need to depend on a -EPO and favourable pacific setup to deliver the goods. The pattern does look ripe for a SSW event by jan/feb with a more poleward 0 line in the mean wind department as well as a large ozone build up from previous ENSO warming. This will likely play a role in hampering the AO state by Jan-March.