Saturday, 1 June 2013

May Verification and June Forecast

May Temperature Forecast Verification:

Here was my may forecast:
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Actual temperature departures for may:
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For my June temperature forecast I am going with a cold eastern/central part of the u.s. Their are several reasons why I am so aggressive on the cold when CPC has equal chances for june. 
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1. Over the past few weeks we have been seeing wetter than normal conditions over the american midwest and western great lakes region. This means that when warm shots come racing out of the plains they will pack less of a punch then if the ground was already dry.

2. The MJO is headed into phase 2-4 over the next two weeks which favours a trough over the central and eastern part of the u.s. This will make it very difficult for temps to recover later on.
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3. Euro weeklies are strongly supporting a colder than normal june with the first 25 days of the month looking much cooler then normal in the midwest, great lakes and east with wet conditions along the gulf coast.

4. ENSO anomalies have turned much cooler in eastern ENSO regions relative to western ENSO regions. This will keep the core of the heat confined to the SW U.S and western rockies. I think B.C stays transient as systems move through and heights fall later in the month. Temps may end up slightly above normal.
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It does look like we will see some very warm days in june across Ontario/quebec it just means that we will see more cloud cover and precipitation holding back departures in southern ontario. In eastern canada, northern ontario and the prairies temps look to average near to above average. This month should also feature above normal severe weather in the great lakes region with more clashes between warm and cool air masses.