Monday, 8 October 2012

Cold will back off but may come back stronger

Record breaking cold was felt for much of the u.s and southern canada this morning as a strong trough is digging into the east as a result of a typhoon recurvature around 7 days ago.

 The cold will back off between the 15th of october to the 24th of october. Another strong typhoon is forecast to recurve east of Japan around the 18th which would argue for an eastern u.s trough between the 24th and 28th. One thing that worries me is the fact that the european has a stronger typhoon heading for china contrary to its previous runs. I'll continue to watch this very closely because it is a very important wild card. GFS operational for this time frame shows this.
GFS operational is already showing some extreme cold coming down as a result of the the typhoon propagating east of japan. Nothing is written in stone but just remember how the models were having trouble picking up on our current trough. What is most important is to know where the typhoon tracks in the western Pacific to get a jump on all the model mayhem. Have a great week everyone!

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