The year 1951 is one of my favourites for the fall because of the corellation we are seeing between this august and that one.
Also this year has a negative PDO, warm AMO and was a la nina to el nino transition. The el nino was moderate but it peaked during the fall which is expected this year as well. 2002 had a warm summer like this year, it followed a la nina and was in a positive AMO. 2009 was a bit of a stronger el nino but still is similar to this year based off of PDO, AMO and proceeding a double la nina. August of '09 was also similar to the current one except more extreme with the cold.
August so far up to the 14th but does not include the coldest conditions expected in the next week or so across the midwest, prairies and great lakes. The blue will begin to cut southwards into the above normal area.
1972 had a very similar MEI trend which is why I included it. The fall trend was also similar to my thoughts. 1976 is another one of my favourite analogs out of my set. It has a good peak time of the el nino and followed la nina winters. The PDO is negative as well. The other years i through in were all el ninos and i tried to focus on years in a negative PDO or preferably in the 50's and 2000's.